Thursday, January 15, 2004
Moon, Mars, and Beyond
I've been thinking about the proposed new manned space exploration plan since word was preannounced last week. I've read excerpts from the President's speech and I've also read the criticism of the plan on Easterblogg which focuses on the underestimated costs of the plan.
I have very mixed feelings right now. From childhood I've been fascinated with space exploration and there is no doubt that the US has been stuck in a rut with its manned program. I put the blame for this squarely on the shuttle program. For 30 years now all the efforts of the program have been focused on putting stuff into orbit - at a grossly expensive price. This goes beyond the horrible accidents that have occurred. It is a problem of aiming low. So it is interesting to finally see a grand vision.
But, I'm not a kid anymore and cost does matter. Even if the costs aren't lowballed, and Gregg Easterbrook has made some compelling arguments that they are, it is still a mind bogglingly expensive plan. What are the reasons for doing this? The Presidents outlined several in his speech:
National pride
Advancement of science
Technological advancements
I have come up with a few more:
Election year politics
Establishing a viable and self-sustainable human presence off the Earth.
Let me give my opinion of these reasons judged against the cost of the President's plan.
National pride
This one is difficult to argue, as it is difficult to put a price on it. Does the mood of the nation today in the midst of our war on terrorism resemble that of the early '60s in the middle of the cold war? At that time, aside from pride was the added value of the program of advancing us in the space/weapons race with the Soviet Union. There is no analogous political and defense benefit today. In my opinion increasing national pride is not worth the cost of this plan.
Advancement of science
This one is straightforward. While there is certainly some science value to be gained from a human presence it is not close to making up the costs. Robot probes can conduct the vast majority of research we would desire and a small fraction of the cost. Advancement of science is not a legitimate reason for advancing this plan unless cost is no option.
Technological advancements
While it is true that the space program has caused tangible side benefits I would argue that this is not a good reason to embark on the plan. Given enough time most if not all of these technologies would be developed by private industry or government. So what you a paying for is to increase technological development. Is this worth the price tag. There are certainly cheaper was to accomplish this goal. While the side benefits are valid I don't believe that they are a reason to move forward
Election year politics
I won't comment on this one more than disclosing that I am a registered Democrat and that I don't belie that this reason is beyond the realm of possibility. OK, I'll also point you to the latest Get Your War On comic strip :-)
Establishing a viable and self-sustainable human presence off the Earth.
This reason, not really articulated in more than vague terms in the President’s speech, is most important to me. As long as the human race is isolated on Earth we are vulnerable to any number of crises that could cause our extinction: nuclear war, massive meteor strike, plague (probably of human manufacture), or others. These are admittedly low probability events, but that could be famous last words. As far as we know today Humans are the only intelligent species in the universe. That is something to be protected...but at what cost? The cost for not proceeding could be the ultimate price.
To me, having a real extraterrestrial human colony is the only compelling argument for going forward with the President's plan - and I think it is worth the cost to move in that direction. I hope that history will look on the shuttle years as an interregnum between great eras in US manned space exploration.
I have very mixed feelings right now. From childhood I've been fascinated with space exploration and there is no doubt that the US has been stuck in a rut with its manned program. I put the blame for this squarely on the shuttle program. For 30 years now all the efforts of the program have been focused on putting stuff into orbit - at a grossly expensive price. This goes beyond the horrible accidents that have occurred. It is a problem of aiming low. So it is interesting to finally see a grand vision.
But, I'm not a kid anymore and cost does matter. Even if the costs aren't lowballed, and Gregg Easterbrook has made some compelling arguments that they are, it is still a mind bogglingly expensive plan. What are the reasons for doing this? The Presidents outlined several in his speech:
I have come up with a few more:
Let me give my opinion of these reasons judged against the cost of the President's plan.
This one is difficult to argue, as it is difficult to put a price on it. Does the mood of the nation today in the midst of our war on terrorism resemble that of the early '60s in the middle of the cold war? At that time, aside from pride was the added value of the program of advancing us in the space/weapons race with the Soviet Union. There is no analogous political and defense benefit today. In my opinion increasing national pride is not worth the cost of this plan.
This one is straightforward. While there is certainly some science value to be gained from a human presence it is not close to making up the costs. Robot probes can conduct the vast majority of research we would desire and a small fraction of the cost. Advancement of science is not a legitimate reason for advancing this plan unless cost is no option.
While it is true that the space program has caused tangible side benefits I would argue that this is not a good reason to embark on the plan. Given enough time most if not all of these technologies would be developed by private industry or government. So what you a paying for is to increase technological development. Is this worth the price tag. There are certainly cheaper was to accomplish this goal. While the side benefits are valid I don't believe that they are a reason to move forward
I won't comment on this one more than disclosing that I am a registered Democrat and that I don't belie that this reason is beyond the realm of possibility. OK, I'll also point you to the latest Get Your War On comic strip :-)
This reason, not really articulated in more than vague terms in the President’s speech, is most important to me. As long as the human race is isolated on Earth we are vulnerable to any number of crises that could cause our extinction: nuclear war, massive meteor strike, plague (probably of human manufacture), or others. These are admittedly low probability events, but that could be famous last words. As far as we know today Humans are the only intelligent species in the universe. That is something to be protected...but at what cost? The cost for not proceeding could be the ultimate price.
To me, having a real extraterrestrial human colony is the only compelling argument for going forward with the President's plan - and I think it is worth the cost to move in that direction. I hope that history will look on the shuttle years as an interregnum between great eras in US manned space exploration.
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